RH Financial Services

Mr. Vikas Garg

Head - Fixed Income India, Invesco Mutual Fund

Vikas heads the Fixed Income investment function at Invesco India and also serves as a fund manager for various duration-oriented debt schemes at Invesco India. He has over 19 years' of experience, of which 17 years' are in the asset management industry spanning across credit research and portfolio management. In his last assignment, Vikas was working with L&T Mutual Fund as a Portfolio Manager where he was responsible for managing the Debt funds in various categories, including the high yield-oriented funds. In the past, he has worked in the credit research team with companies like FIL Fund Management Pvt. Ltd. and ICRA Ltd. Vikas holds B. Tech & M. Tech in Chemical Engineering from IIT- Delhi, PGDBM from XLRI -Jamshedpur and has cleared CFA (USA) Level III.

Q1. Given that the Reserve Bank of India has initiated its rate cut cycle, do you foresee an additional reduction in lending rates during the upcoming April policy meeting?

Ans: MPC has kickstarted the rate cut cycle with 25 bps in Feb 2025, after almost 5 years. Since then, global as well domestic factors have turned more favorable for the 2nd consecutive rate cut in April policy. Globally, while the inflationary threat of US's tariff policy lingers, it has also raised concerns about US's economic growth. Recent moderation in US's CPI & jobs market reflected that, and even FOMC highlighted the same in its March policy when it delivered a dovish pause. Back home, Feb 2025 headline inflation has come at 3.61%, much better than expectations and with that, 4QFY25 average inflation may remain closer to 4% as against RBI's projections of 4.4%. The recent monthly trade deficit came in sharply lower, and for the first time, net monthly service exports exceeded the trade deficit. The INR has recovered well after almost touching 88 against the Dollar. RBI has initiated various liquidity measures like Open Market Purchase operations of G-Sec and Fx swap in order to provide durable liquidity. 3QFY25 GDP growth has recovered to an extent over the previous quarter but the risk factors remain high amidst global policy flux, posing challenge to RBI's projected GDP growth of 6.7% for FY26. With these factors, we expect RBI to turn its focus on growth support with another 25 bps rate cut in the forthcoming April 2025 policy. The new MPC's more flexible approach to inflation trajectory under the inflation targeting framework provides room for further rate cuts, however, it may also depend upon the global situation.

Q2. RBI recently announced a $21 billion liquidity infusion through open market operations and foreign exchange swaps. How do you foresee these measures influencing bond yields and the overall fixed-income market?"

Ans: There has been a marked change in RBI's forex and liquidity management approach since December 2024. Even as the banking liquidity has been in deficit for quite some time, RBI has been providing enough liquidity through VRRs thereby maintaining the overnight TREPs yield close to the policy repo rate. Additionally, RBI has been providing durable liquidity through OMOs and Fx swap. While all these measures have helped reduce the liquidity deficit, short end money market and corporate bond yields are still elevated. We expect the banking liquidity to turn adequately surplus over next 2 months with RBI's continued liquidity measures and RBI's dividend in May, thereby triggering a downward movement in short end yields. We expect RBI to use OMOs as a major liquidity tool to inject durable liquidity which will further sweeten the demand-supply dynamics for G-Sec, especially in the 5-15 yr segment.

Q3. How important is duration management in the current economic environment? What approaches do you recommend for aligning portfolio duration with investment objectives?

Ans: With the likelihood of further rate cuts by RBI and improving banking liquidity over the next few months, the overall risk-reward remains favorable at the current juncture. However, it is also important to position appropriately on the yield curve. The G-Sec yield curve is steep as of now, especially in the 5 – 15 yr segment, which we expect to flatten out on favorable demand-supply dynamics with fiscal consolidation, FPI buying and RBI's OMOs. The corporate bond yield curve on the other hand is inverted as short end yields remain elevated due to tight banking liquidity and huge supply. We expect the corporate bond yield curve to flatten out as well, but with short end 1- 5 yr yields coming lower more rapidly as the banking liquidity improves post May 2025. Any uptick in yields due to still evolving global factors should be seen as an opportunity to build further exposure. Active fund management is critical as uncertainties may emanate from domestic inflation and global backdrop, which may influence various yield curve segments differently.

Q4. What criteria should investors consider when evaluating the creditworthiness of fixed income securities?

Ans: While the high external rating (like AAA / AA category) of issuers of fixed income securities provides a good starting point, one should also independently analyze the creditworthiness of the issuer. Various parameters like promoter's background, high corporate governance, track record of successfully managing the business across the cycles, strength of balance sheet, steady cash flows, debt servicing capabilities, external rating history, among others, can be considered to take a more informed view. Healthy credit metrics of an issuer scores better than the security package of underlying fixed income instruments.

Q5. How do you assess the influence of global economic trends, such as inflationary pressures and geopolitical events, on India's bond market?

Ans: Global market remains on edge as the US has started taking tariff policy measures against few countries. Such measures are expected against more countries, including India, thereby keeping the tensions high. Geo-political tensions have also flared up. The response function of countries may vary, adding to the overall volatility in financial & currency markets. US's further rate cut expectations are changing rapidly as incoming data suggests a healthy economy but at the same time policy disruptions may increase the risks to growth.

Against the global uncertainty, the Indian fixed income market is expected to remain largely resilient, though it may face knee-jerk reactions. The Central Government's clearly articulated fiscal consolidation path over the next few years remains a structural driver for the domestic fixed income market. Foreign investors continue to invest in the domestic fixed income market for the 4^th consecutive month with inclusion in global debt indices, even as the equity segment has seen huge outflows. The INR has proved to be relatively better across EMs, amidst currency volatility on the back of strong fundamental drivers and manageable current account deficit. Domestic inflation is showing healthy signs of moderation. Given these factors, we expect the domestic bonds market to remain largely insulated from global spillovers and react more to the domestic factors.

Q6. What is your outlook for the fixed-income market in the coming quarters, and what investment strategies do you recommend for investors seeking stable returns?

Ans: We maintain a constructive view on the domestic fixed income market on the back of favorable demand-supply dynamics for G-Secs, expected rate cuts and improving banking liquidity. Current elevated yields across the curve provide an attractive entry point. For investors looking to keep the volatility low, debt fund categories like Money Market, Ultra Short Duration and Low Duration provide healthy accruals and are expected to benefit from rate cuts & improving liquidity. Permitting the risk appetite, one may look to add duration through funds like Short Duration Fund, Corporate Bond Fund and Medium Duration Fund which can provide balanced participation in G-Sec in the 5-15 yr space and corporate bonds in 1-5 yr space. These categories will help in capturing capital gains as the yields decline.

Mr. Taher Badshah

Chief Investment Officer - Equity Invesco Mutual Fund

Taher has over 30 years of experience in the Indian equity markets. In his role as Chief Investment Officer, Taher is responsible for the equity and fixed income investment function at the firm. He has been with Invesco Asset Management, India for over 7 years. In his previous role with Motilal Oswal Asset Management as Head of Equities, he was responsible for leading the equity investment team. In the past, he has also worked with companies like Kotak Mahindra Investment Advisors, ICICI Prudential Asset Management, Alliance Capital Asset Management, etc. Taher holds a Master’s in management studies (MMS), with specialization in finance from S.P. Jain Institute of Management and a B.E. degree in Electronics from the University of Mumbai.

Q1. The year 2025 is presenting significant challenges, particularly for retail investors holding small-cap stocks. With the correction in high PE stocks, do you anticipate further market downturn or a gradual recovery as we step into FY26?

Ans: We believe the correction in the broad market and particularly in the SMID space since the start of the year has by and large run its course. Bulk of the damage is behind us. Domestic slowdown and Global uncertainty have been the key causes of the market decline. We think many of the measures taken by RBI and the Govt in the past 3 months, the start of the rate cut cycle and the support to consumption through the Budget will have their effects in the coming months to Improve growth trends. Globally, we reckon the tariff measures by the US will be in place over the next 2-3 months. We also expect the US economy to slow this year and thereby foreign investor flows to start moving from developed to emerging markets. Meanwhile, India's valuations, especially in the smallcap segment have corrected 20pc during this fall making the segment quite attractive once again for investors with a 2-3 year horizon.

Q2. Many stocks are currently trading at a 20-50% discount from their previous highs. What key criteria should investors consider when selecting stocks in this environment?

Ans: At a stock level, investors should move up the quality curve but at the same time ensure those companies are able to grow ahead of the system rate of growth (nominal GDP). Companies with credible competitive advantages and strong execution in the recent past should be preferred.

Q3. With factors like Trump's policies, trade wars, tariffs, dollar fluctuations, and a shaky US equity market-alongside Nifty hitting an eight-month low-how should Indian investors adjust their mindset and investment strategy in response?

Ans: Over time various factors will confront markets and investors in their journey. It is important to keep a longer-term view and return expectations modest. One will not find answers to all issues at the same time. It is important to be able to judge what market has already priced in. Due to prevailing uncertainties, India's valuations have lost much of their premium to world markets which provides an attractive entry point for smart investors who look to compound earnings over the long term in our view. Uncertainty provides opportunity.

Q4. If an investor approaches you with a medium risk appetite, and a significant cash reserve looking to invest exclusively in mutual funds, how would you construct a suitable mutual fund portfolio in this current market?

Ans: For investors with a medium risk appetite, I would recommend a combination of a flexicap and small cap fund (75%) at this stage of the market cycle. I would also look to do the remaining 25pc allocation to at best 1-2 thematic funds and a multi asset fund.

Q5. Do you anticipate an earnings recovery in Calendar Year 2025?

Ans: We think India's earnings downgrade cycle is largely done and with the measures undertaken by the central bank and the government, we expect the earnings cycle to strengthen in the coming quarters and alongside a steady back ended recovery in the markets starting second half of calendar 2025.

Mr. Sailesh Raj Bhan

CIO - Equity Investment, Nippon India Mutual Fund

Sailesh Raj Bhan is CIO - Equity Investments at Nippon India Mutual Fund. He has over 27 years of experience in Indian Equity Markets with over 19years at Nippon Life India Asset Management Limited. An MBA in Finance and CFA by qualification, he has been managing multiple flagship funds namely, Nippon India Large Cap Fund, Nippon India Multi Cap Fund & Nippon India Pharma Fund for over 15 years.

Q1. What are your thoughts on the overall budget and its impact on the equity markets, the economy, and other key areas?

Fiscally prudent balanced budget with its 3-pronged strategy 1) supporting consumption through tax cuts 2) maintaining capex thrust & creating better environment for bigger role private sector and 3) fiscal prudence. More disposable income is likely to lead to higher spending, better consumer - business confidence and eventually private capex recovery backed by credit growth revival. We expect the budget will be viewed positively by markets and domestic flows will be supportive.

Q2. When discussing the Budget, it's clear that several incentives have been introduced for the middle class to drive consumption. However, the capital market's expectations were not fully addressed. What are your thoughts on this?

Consumption slowdown was a key area which was sought to be addressed by the budget, however the Capex push was maintained despite the constraints of fiscal prudence. Total capex spend is projected to grow at 10% YoY against 8% in FY25. Including extra budgetary resources (IEBR), total capex spend is likely to grow 11% against 7% in FY25. Within total capex, the growth in roads and railways capex (including IEBR) is flat (0%) in FY26 ( 5-7% YoY in FY25 while defense capex is projected to grow 13% YoY in FY26 versus 4% in FY25. Apart from these measures ease of doing businesses has been the key theme of the Budget, which can help in improving Private Sector capex.

Q3. Have there been any changes in FIIs' concerns or their positioning following the Budget?

The prevailing global macroeconomic conditions along domestic factors may weigh on the sentiment of foreign investors in the short run. This along with the currency volatility based on policy shifts in the US is another parameter which will influence the flows. While the India equity valuations have moderated with large caps closer to long term averages and broader premiums have come off from the highs, it is anticipated the FIIs may remain cautious in the near term till better visibility emerges from a macro perspective.

Q4. What are the most and least promising sectors after the Budget?

Large financials, consumer discretionary segment along with structural themes like urbanization, premiumization and localization of manufacturing appear well placed in the current context

Q5. Given the recent market volatility, what are your predictions for future SIP trends? Have you observed any recent changes in SIP inflows or a shift in allocation patterns?

SIPs are great form of long-term wealth building. Given the extent of investor awareness through various educational initiatives, it is unlikely that SIP flows may witness large scale stoppages. Although, there have not been any significant changes in allocation pattern, it is likely that large cap and large cap-oriented categories like Flexi/Multi/Large Mid Cap etc. may witness higher investor preference on higher than usual volatility.

Q6. Suppose someone with a three-year investment horizon, particularly Gen Z investors who entered the market post-COVID, is now facing a 20-30% drawdown in their mutual fund. They might be questioning their decision, thinking, "What should we do?" How should they navigate this situation?

Asset allocation in line with an investor’s need is very important and in case there is deviation in the same due to market swings, its essential that the same is rebalanced in line with financial needs. Accordingly portfolio can be realigned and investors with shorter time horizon and less risk appetite can consider hybrid strategies like Balanced Advantage or Multi asset allocation funds or even consider adding some debt allocations.

Alternatively if the investor can extend the investment horizon and has appropriate risk appetite they can continue with their investments. Historically it has been observed that sharp decline in equity markets offer great opportunity to accumulate more units (at lower prices) like 2000, 2008, 2013, 2020 wherein the returns post the correction phase can be meaningful.

Mr. Amit Tripathi

CIO - Fixed Income, Nippon India Mutual Fund

Amit has 27 years of experience in Capital Markets. He has been with NIMF for more than 20 years. He has successfully managed fixed income and hybrid funds for the past two decades. Many of these funds have been recognized for superior performance both nationally and internationally. In his current role as CIO- Fixed Income, he leads a team of 22 highly motivated and experienced fixed income professionals.

Q1. Following the policy announcement, why did the bond markets initially react with disappointment, despite yields rising a few basis points?

Bonds markets reacted with disappointment post first rate cut as the move was already priced in by the market. Absence of any specific announcement with respect to liquidity measures even as the RBI guided to ensure sufficient system liquidity coupled with absence of change in stance led to spike in bond yields.

Q2. With two major events-the Union Budget and the highly anticipated rate cut-now behind us, what are your expectations for yields?

Given the good performance of long-term bond yields over the last 12-18 months risk-return trade off appears in favour of short end of the curve i.e 1-5 year. Liquidity easing measures by the RBI may lead to steepening of the yield curve, leading to lower yields at short end of the curve across assets. While a conduct of OMO purchase by the RBI is positive for 10-year benchmark GOI bond. Any incremental deterioration in growth and further rate cuts by the RBI and fall in US bond yields may be positive for long duration.

Q3. How are your debt funds positioned in terms of duration? Have the recent policy updates led to any adjustments?

We have made no changes in the duration and are on the higher side of the duration in the intermediate duration fund category to benefit from the potential rate cuts and liquidity easing measures.

Q4. What according to you were the key takeaways from the governor's speech?

• Given the current growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt that a less restrictive monetary policy is more appropriate at the current juncture.

• MPC to use the flexibility embedded in the inflation targeting framework while responding to the evolving growth-inflation dynamics.

• To proactively take appropriate measures to ensure orderly liquidity conditions.

Q5. What advice would you give investors on positioning their fixed-income portfolios considering the budget announcements and the RBI rate cut?

Given a marginal term spread, between 5 and 10-year GOI bonds at around 4 bps, with the 5 year GOI bond currently hovering around 6.65% and the 10-year GOI bond at around 6.69% we expect term spread to widen. Further, the yield of the AAA rated 3- and 5-year corporate bonds currently stands at around 7.30% and 7.26%, respectively, as compared to the 6.63% and 6.65% yield of the GOI bonds of the same tenure. Thus, offering an opportunity of spread compression of corporate bonds over GOI bonds. Further liquidity infusion may soften the yields at short end of the curve.

Accordingly in line with the current market dynamics around 70%-75% of the allocation may be considered at intermediate duration (which invests in 3-5 yr corporate bonds and 5-10 yr g-secs), such as short term funds, corporate bond fund, low duration fund, Banking & PSU debt Fund. and remaining 25%-30% at the long end of the curve.

Mr. Nimesh Chandan

Chief Investment Officer - Equity

Bajaj Finserv

Nimesh Chandan is an Investment Professional with 22 years of experience in investing in the Indian capital markets. He has an established track record in managing money and advising clients, both Domestic and International, Retail as well as Institutional.

Over the years, he has developed an investment process that generates alpha through informational, analytical as well as behavioural edge. He has been part of the mutual fund industry for 18 years where has managed products across market capitalisation and themes, and developed models on Sustainable Investing, Quant Investing and Asset Allocation..

Nimesh is a keen follower of Behavioural Finance and has been writing and presenting on the role of psychology in Investment Decision-making to the investment community. He has developed a set of processes and tools that help reduce one’s behavioural mistakes and understand the crowd or market behaviour.

Q1. As we begin 2025, how do you expect the year to unfold in comparison to 2024?

As we begin 2025, it's important to acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in predicting market outcomes at this stage. Event risks, including geopolitical developments and global economic shifts, remain key factors that could influence market performance. Domestically, the Union Budget will be a significant event, with potential measures to drive growth, investment, and consumption. However, it's too early to gauge the full impact until we see the details of these announcements.

The policy rate outlook will also play a pivotal role, with both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and global central banks navigating a balancing act between inflation control and economic growth. For now, views on how 2025 will compare to 2024 remain fluid and will solidify further after critical economic data is released in March, including corporate earnings and macroeconomic indicators. As always, our focus remains on navigating these uncertainties while identifying opportunities to deliver consistent, long-term value for our investors.

Q2. In this new year, one major event to watch for is the budget. What do you anticipate will be the key focus areas for the government this time?

The Union Budget this year is likely to focus on driving economic growth while maintaining fiscal discipline. The government may announce measures to boost rural development, agriculture, and infrastructure to support inclusive growth and job creation. Investments in sectors like renewable energy, manufacturing, and affordable housing could be prioritized to align with long-term economic goals. Additionally, tax reforms and incentives for individuals and businesses may aim to stimulate consumption and investment.

Another key area could be measures to encourage private sector participation and ease of doing business, particularly through PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes and MSME support. Continued emphasis on digital transformation, healthcare, and education is also expected, given their critical role in sustaining India's growth momentum. We will be closely analyzing these announcements for their potential impact on market sectors and corporate earnings to align our portfolios with emerging opportunities.

Q3. With the recent market correction in both BSE and Nifty, is this an opportunity for investors to enter the market or increase their existing positions?

The recent market correction in both BSE and Nifty can offer a good opportunity for investors, but the approach should be tailored to their risk-taking capacity and investment goals.

1. Low-Risk Investors: For conservative investors, market corrections can present opportunities to add positions in large-cap, stable companies with strong fundamentals and consistent earnings. These stocks tend to be less volatile and provide steady returns over time. Our large-cap fund with a focused strategy could be a suitable option here.

2. Moderate-Risk Investors: For investors with a moderate risk appetite, this market correction may offer opportunities to invest in a mix of large-cap and mid-cap stocks, which have growth potential but come with slightly higher volatility. Our large and mid cap fund with moat investing strategy and which invests a minimum of 35% in each of large and mid cap stocks, could help capture upside while managing risk.

3. High-Risk Investors: For those willing to take on more risk, market corrections can present attractive entry points into sectoral and thematic funds. We have 2 offerings in the sectoral and thematic space - consumption and healthcare fund, which could be suitable for high risk investors.

Key Factors to consider:

• Market Volatility: While corrections offer opportunities, markets can remain volatile in the short term. It's important to maintain a long-term perspective to avoid making decisions based on short-term market movements.

• Risk Diversification: It's essential to not concentrate investments in just one or two sectors. Diversified equity funds offer a balanced approach to manage risks while participating in market growth.

• Fundamental Analysis: Ensure that investments are being made in fundamentally strong stocks or sectors with robust growth potential, rather than being swayed solely by market price movements during the correction.

This market correction presents a good entry point for investors based on their risk profiles, and mutual funds offer an efficient way to diversify across sectors and market caps, aligning with both conservative and growth-oriented strategies.

Q4. Is the popularity of index and factor-based passive funds a passing trend, or do they represent a sustainable and enduring investment approach?

The popularity of index and factor-based passive funds is not a passing trend but rather represents a sustainable and enduring investment approach. The rationale behind this assertion can be framed within the following key points:

• Cost Efficiency
  Passive funds, whether index-based or factor-based, offer significantly lower expense ratios compared to actively managed funds. With the growing awareness of costs impacting long-term returns, investors gravitate toward these cost-efficient solutions, especially in efficient markets where alpha generation is challenging.

• Empirical Evidence on Factor Premiums
  Factor-based funds tap into well-documented sources of return, such as value, momentum, quality, size, and low volatility. These factors have been empirically proven to deliver risk-adjusted outperformance over the long term, aligning with evidence-based investment approaches.

• Diversification Benefits
  Index funds offer diversification across various sectors, commodities and styles, while factor funds allow targeted exposure to specific risk premiums, enhancing portfolio construction flexibility and resilience against individual stock or sector-specific risks.

The growing popularity of passive funds in India is driven by their structural advantages, including transparency, cost-effectiveness, and alignment with evolving investor preferences. These factors position them as an increasingly integral part of modern portfolio management in the country.

Q5. Which sectors are you currently underweight on and which ones are you bullish about for 2025, and what's driving your stance?

We are currently bullish in the Consumption, Healthcare and IT sectors.

Consumption: We are bullish on the consumption sector due to India’s strong domestic demand and demographic advantages. Rising disposable incomes, urbanization, and a growing middle class are driving robust demand for consumer goods and services. Additionally, government initiatives such as rural development programs, increased infrastructure spending, and welfare schemes are boosting rural consumption. Companies in this sector also benefit from improving supply chain efficiencies and innovations in e-commerce, further enhancing profitability and growth potential.

Healthcare: India's healthcare sector presents a compelling investment opportunity due to structural tailwinds such as rising health awareness, increasing healthcare spending, and an aging population. The sector benefits from both domestic and global demand for pharmaceutical products, medical devices, and healthcare services. Government policies like Ayushman Bharat and incentives for pharmaceutical manufacturing bolster the sector's prospects. Additionally, India's established position as a global pharmaceutical hub, supported by cost-efficient production and strong R&D capabilities, provides further upside for long-term growth.

IT: The IT sector remains a cornerstone of India’s economy, driven by its dominant position in global IT services and digital transformation trends. The sector benefits from a growing demand for cloud computing, AI, cybersecurity, and data analytics. Strong client spending in key geographies like the US and Europe supports revenue growth. Moreover, the sector is positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in platform-based solutions and digital engineering. The favourable currency movement and India’s cost advantage in talent acquisition also contribute to the sector's sustained profitability and growth.

Currently, we are underweight in the Utility, Metal and Financial Services sectors.

Q6. The New Year marks a time for fresh starts, and if someone were to begin anew with a capital of Rs 10 lakh, how would you recommend they proceed, particularly if they have a moderate risk appetite? What would be an ideal asset allocation strategy in this case?

For someone with a moderate risk appetite and a capital of ₹10 lakh, the focus should be on achieving a balance between growth and stability while aligning the investment strategy with their long-term goals, time horizon, and liquidity needs.

An ideal asset allocation for moderate risk would typically involve diversification across equity, debt, and other asset classes. Equity investments can provide growth potential, while fixed-income instruments offer stability and consistent returns. Depending on the individual's financial objectives, a portion could also be allocated to alternative assets like gold for added diversification and inflation hedging. Periodic reviews of the portfolio are crucial to ensure that it remains aligned with market conditions and personal goals, making this strategy adaptable and future-ready.

Mr. Nimesh Chandan

Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income India

Bajaj Finserv

Nimesh Chandan is an Investment Professional with 22 years of experience in investing in the Indian capital markets. He has an established track record in managing money and advising clients, both Domestic and International, Retail as well as Institutional.

Over the years, he has developed an investment process that generates alpha through informational, analytical as well as behavioural edge. He has been part of the mutual fund industry for 18 years where has managed products across market capitalisation and themes, and developed models on Sustainable Investing, Quant Investing and Asset Allocation..

Nimesh is a keen follower of Behavioural Finance and has been writing and presenting on the role of psychology in Investment Decision-making to the investment community. He has developed a set of processes and tools that help reduce one’s behavioural mistakes and understand the crowd or market behaviour.

Q1. A major event in the US is the potential return of Trump with "Trump 2.0." How do you think this could influence US monetary policy, and what impact might it have on interest rates globally?

The potential return of Trump with "Trump 2.0" could bring significant policy shifts, impacting global markets and monetary policy indirectly. His administration's platform of improving government efficiency and reducing budgetary expenditure could influence fiscal policy, possibly curbing certain government programs to manage deficits. However, pro-business policies, including deregulation and tax incentives, might stimulate economic growth, potentially leading to inflationary pressures that the US Federal Reserve would need to monitor closely.

Key uncertainties, such as tariffs, visa policies, and inflation, add layers of complexity. Trade restrictions or tariff uncertainty could disrupt global supply chains, increasing costs and fueling inflation, while visa policy changes might impact labor markets and productivity. These factors could lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious stance, balancing growth support with inflation control. For now, a "wait and watch" approach is prudent as the situation evolves, keeping a close eye on data and developments that could shape interest rates globally.

Q2. In 2024, the US Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 100 basis points, yet the US 10-year bond yields have risen by about 70-80 basis points. Meanwhile, despite the Reserve Bank of India not cutting rates, the 10-year G-Sec yield posted its steepest decline in four years in 2024. The yield ended at 6.7597%, dropping 42 basis points on-year after easing 15 bps in 2023. How do you interpret these developments in the context of both economies?

Some of the reasons for rising US 10 year bond yields are:

• Economists initially projected 1.2% growth for 2024, but this estimate more than doubled to 2.7% by year-end. Stronger-than-expected growth reduced the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing yields higher.

• Economic uncertainty continues to drive yields upward, with lingering questions about the Fed's future rate path and the potential inflationary impact of new administration policies.

• If markets anticipate higher future inflation, long-term bond yields may rise, regardless of rate cuts.

Some of the factors attributing to falling 10 year G-Sec yields are:

1. Easing Inflation: India's retail inflation moderated significantly in 2024, reducing pressure on yields.

2. Global Impact: Falling US Treasury yields earlier in the year and expectations of global monetary easing improved risk sentiment, benefiting Indian bonds.

3. Foreign Inflows: Improved global liquidity conditions likely attracted Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to Indian debt markets, strengthening demand for G-Secs.

4. Supply Management by RBI: Proactive Open Market Operations (OMOs) and bond-buying programs by the RBI ensured smooth absorption of government borrowing, keeping yields under control.

Q3. What are the key risks that fixed income investors should be mindful of?

1. Interest Rate Risk: When interest rates rise, the price of existing bonds tends to fall, leading to potential capital losses. This is a key risk for investors holding longer-duration bonds. Short-duration bond funds or those focused on floating-rate securities can help mitigate this risk.

2. Credit Risk: This refers to the risk that the issuer of the bond may default on its interest payments or principal repayment. For investors in corporate bonds or lower-rated bonds, it's essential to assess the creditworthiness of the issuer. Opting for funds focused on high-quality, investment-grade bonds can reduce exposure to credit risk.

3. Inflation Risk: Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fixed income returns. If inflation rises significantly, the real return on fixed income securities may turn negative. Investors looking for protection against inflation may consider inflation-linked bonds or funds with exposure to sectors that tend to perform well in inflationary environments, such as government securities or short-duration bonds.

4. Liquidity Risk: Some fixed income securities, particularly those in less liquid markets, can be difficult to sell quickly without a loss in value. This risk is more relevant for investors in lower-rated or illiquid bonds. Funds that focus on more liquid, high-quality bonds can help mitigate this risk.

5. Reinvestment Risk: This arises when interest or principal payments from bonds need to be reinvested, but prevailing interest rates are lower than when the original investment was made. Investors can mitigate this by opting for laddered bond strategies or funds that actively manage reinvestment opportunities.

Q4. What investment strategies would you recommend for investors at both the short end and long end of the curve in 2025?

Investment strategies for 2025 should consider the prevailing macroeconomic environment, interest rate trends, and individual investor objectives. At the short end of the curve, the focus is typically on managing liquidity and capital preservation. Investors may look to take advantage of opportunities that offer stable returns with lower interest rate sensitivity, keeping duration relatively short to mitigate volatility risks. This approach is particularly suited for those with a shorter investment horizon or those seeking to park funds temporarily.

For the long end of the curve, strategies would likely depend on the trajectory of interest rates and inflation expectations. A stable or declining rate environment could provide opportunities to lock in higher yields for the long term, benefiting from potential price appreciation. However, long-duration investments carry higher interest rate risks and may be better suited for investors with a longer horizon and a greater tolerance for volatility. Across both ends, diversification and alignment with individual financial goals remain key to navigating market uncertainties effectively.

Q5. With the RBI raising its inflation projection and lowering its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year, what is your outlook on economic growth? Do you believe it can pick up in the second half of this fiscal year?

The RBI's decision to raise its inflation projection and lower its GDP growth forecast reflects the challenges posed by persistent inflationary pressures and global uncertainties. These adjustments suggest a cautious economic environment where growth might face headwinds in the near term due to higher costs, subdued external demand, and tighter monetary conditions.

That said, economic growth in the second half of the fiscal year could pick up, supported by factors like a good festive season, strong government spending, and resilient domestic demand. Additionally, easing inflationary pressures, if achieved, could improve consumer and business sentiment, fostering a recovery in key sectors. However, much will depend on external factors like global growth trends, geopolitical developments, and commodity price movements. A balanced and measured approach remains crucial for navigating these evolving conditions.

Mr. Rahul Goswami

Chief Investment Officer & Managing Director - Fixed Income India

Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Rahul Goswami is Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and Managing Director at Franklin Templeton, Fixed Income in India. In this role, Rahul oversees the fixed income functions of the locally managed and distributed debt schemes of Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund. Rahul was previously the CIO - Fixed Income at ICICI Prudential Asset Management (I-Pru) and a key contributor to the success of I-Pru’s fixed income funds in India. Prior to I-Pru, he was a member of the Franklin Templeton India Fixed Income team, serving as portfolio manager from 2002 to 2004. Rahul also brings a wealth of experience from his time at well-regarded banks such as Standard Chartered Bank and UTI Bank. He has over 25 years’ experience in managing fixed income funds.

Rahul earned his M.B.A. and his bachelor’s degree in science from Bhopal University.

Q1. RBI announced a 50-basis-point reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). How do you assess the impact of this move, especially in the context of rising global geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures?

The CRR reduction to 4.00% in two tranches of 25 bps each is a move towards restoring the ratio to pre-April 2022 levels. The move is aimed at releasing approximately ₹1.16 lakh crore of primary liquidity into the banking system. RBI in its latest policy meeting suggested that the systemic liquidity is expected to tighten due to tax outflows, increase in currency in circulation and volatility in capital flows. This reduction is to enable banks to continue credit to businesses and consumers, leading to increased investment and consumption. Domestically, inflation has remained mostly within the RBI tolerance band and the volatility exhibited by the headline inflation is due to intermittent spike in vegetable and food prices and to an extent due to unfavorable base effects. Thus, we believe that the additional supply of money is not expected to be inflationary but only to compensate for the reduced liquidity.

Q2. With the RBI maintaining the status quo on policy rates in this month’s MPC meeting, what is your outlook for the next monetary policy review? Is a rate cut on the cards in February? If so, what could be the magnitude of the cut?

Policy moves by the RBI are determined by growth-inflation dynamics and macro stability. While the latest growth outlook for full year FY25 was tempered by 60 bps to 6.6%^ (Source: RBI Monetary Policy Committee dated 6^th Dec 2024), it was largely a result of lower-than-expected GDP growth in the Q2FY25. Average real GDP growth, as per RBI projection, for the next four quarters i.e Q3FY25, Q4FY25, Q1FY26 and Q2FY26 are expected to be above 7%. At this juncture, it wants to remain prudent and practical and does not want the intermittent spike in headline inflation due to food prices volatility to spillover into other components of the inflation basket. It is difficult to predict the exact timing of rates cuts by the RBI, but we assess rate cuts in India to be shallow with two or three cuts of 25 bps each in CY 2025.

Q3. Will US 10-year bond yields cross 5% again? If yes, what would be its impact on emerging markets like India?

Looking at probable fiscal situation and growth-inflation dynamics in US, the neutral level for 10yr bond yield is in the range of 4.50-5.0%. This increase in US bond yields may pose challenges for emerging markets, as their bond yields must offer a suitably attractive rate of return. To make investing in these markets reasonable, one must consider hedging costs and ensure a return that surpasses the 4.5-5.0% yield of US bonds.

Q4. The RBI's downward revision of the GDP forecast to 6.6% from 7.2% raises concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Do you believe the Indian economy is on track to achieve its potential, considering current economic indicators?

RBI assesses the domestic activity to bottomed out in Q2:2024-25. In our assessment India's real GDP growth in Q2 at 5.4% is an aberration. The low GDP number is due to slowdown in industrial growth, particularly in manufacturing, mining, and electricity. However, high-frequency indicators suggest recovery, driven by strong festive demand and improved rural activities. Agricultural growth is supported by a healthy kharif crop and better rabi sowing. The services sector continues to expand robustly. Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 6.6%^, with Q3 at 6.8% and Q4 at 7.2%, indicating a resilient outlook. The next year’s quarterly growth outlook is estimated at 6.9% in Q1FY26 and 7.3% in Q2FY26. Overall, we feel that the growth might bounce back from the lows of Q2FY25 due to increased government spending and aided by strong high frequency indicators.

Q5. In light of a strong dollar and its global repercussions, how do you see currency movements affecting Indian investments?

RBI has been aware of the repercussions of a strong dollar and has been proactive to intervene from time to time. Financial markets have remained edgy amidst the rising US dollar and hardening bond yields, resulting in large capital outflows from emerging markets. Going forward, the outlook is clouded by rising tendencies of protectionism which have the potential to undermine global growth and push inflation higher. India, like other emerging markets is also likely to see volatility in asset prices.

Q6. We are in the last month of the year 2024 – any key learnings you would like to share?

We began the year with continued geopolitical risk amidst two ongoing wars. Then, developed economies started lowering rates, beginning with the European Central Bank, followed by the Bank of England. In September, the US Fed delivered a higher-than-expected cut of 50 bps, followed by two more cuts of 25 bps each (Source: US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Documents dated 18^th Sept, 7^th Nov, 18^th Dec 2024), cumulatively bringing down the rates by a full percentage point. Additionally, a Republican sweep in the US elections may lead to tariff changes and tax cuts, potentially causing disruptions and inflation. These factors have effectively added an element of uncertainty to the financial markets. We believe that the volatility we have seen in 2024 might continue for some more time, and therefore, we need to remain prudent and agile in our actions to rebalance our investment portfolio from time to time.

Disclaimer: This document has been issued on the basis of internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is for general purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. The sector, instruments and securities mentioned herein are for general assessment purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. The information / data herein alone is not sufficient and shouldn’t be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The article does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Readers shall be fully responsible/liable for any decision taken on the basis of this document.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

Mr. Janakiraman Rengaraju

Chief Investment Officer - Equity

Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Mr. Janakiraman Rengaraju is Chief Investment Officer - Equity for Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt Ltd. Mr. Rengaraju is responsible for overseeing all the local equity funds. His responsibility includes mentoring all the portfolio managers apart from continuing to be the Portfolio Manager for some of the key products. Mr. Rengaraju manages Franklin India Flexi Cap Fund, Franklin India Prima Fund, Franklin India Taxshield and Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund.

Mr. Rengaraju has been in the investment management Industry since 1997. He started his career with FT in 2007. Prior to joining Franklin Templeton, he was managing the investment corpus of Indian Syntans Group, a Chennai based privately held group of companies. Before this, he worked for UTI Securities, Mumbai. He is a CFA charter holder.

Q1. November has been a volatile month, with markets fluctuating between bullish and bearish trends. What is your outlook on the markets? Are there any chances of a Santa rally this time?

The domestic markets have remained volatile for the second consecutive month. Investor sentiment has been dampened by subdued corporate earnings for Q2FY25, concerns over potential U.S. tariffs, continued foreign fund outflows, and rising inflation. However, favorable state election results and easing geopolitical uncertainties have provided some support to the market.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues, and the change in the US government indicates that the coming months might be particularly eventful. Market volatility is expected, but the recent correction has created some upside potential, even with the earnings cuts. However, a shift in the trend of earnings estimate cuts might support a sustained market uptrend.

Q2. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) shifted from being net sellers to net buyers in the latter half of November 2024. Could this act as a significant catalyst for a potential market rally ahead?

Although predicting the extent or direction of Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) actions is challenging, the fundamental outlook for the Indian economy remains strong in the medium to long term. The recent correction has indeed opened up the possibility of some upside potential in the markets.

Q3. SEBI proposes to introduce a close auction session in equity markets. It aims to replace the current Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) mechanism for closing prices. What are your thoughts on how this change will play out?

SEBI's proposal to introduce a Close Auction Session (CAS) in equity markets aims to reduce volatility and improve the accuracy of closing prices, especially for stocks with derivatives trading. The potential impacts include.

1. Reduced volatility: CAS aims to minimize price swings during market close, particularly on days of index rebalancing or derivative expiries.

2. Improved execution: Large orders might see better execution at the closing price, crucial for passive funds tracking indices.

3. Alignment with global practices: Many international markets already use a closing auction mechanism, aligning Indian markets with global standards.

4. Phased implementation: SEBI plans to introduce this in phases, starting with stocks that have sufficient liquidity, ensuring a smoother transition

Q4. After the Q2 earnings, how have you adjusted your investment strategy? Which sectors do you believe offer remunerative risk-reward opportunities at present?

The Q2FY25 earnings season has been weak, with both revenue and earnings growth under pressure across various sectors. However, the recent price correction presents some upside potential in the markets. Our investment approach is to capitalize on such near-term weaknesses to build positions in high-quality companies that can compound their earnings over many years.

We find a broad range of opportunities across sectors such as financial services, consumer discretionary, healthcare, real estate, and digital services. Additionally, the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are offering investment opportunities.

Q5. What are the key potential trigger points for the markets in 2025 that investors should keep an eye on?

For 2025, we might expect a more turbulent year, particularly in terms of geopolitics. In India, these changes are already evident. We began FY25 with earnings growth projections of around 15% (source: Bloomberg), but now it seems we might achieve only high single-digit earnings growth for the Nifty. Expectations include RBI rate cuts and cooling inflation. The economic slowdown is expected to be transient, with a recovery in government capex during the second half of the fiscal year benefiting companies and sectors linked to the capex theme, refocusing on the ongoing multiyear capex cycle in India.

Q6. 2024 has been a record year for fundraising through IPOs and QIPs. What factors have contributed to this trend?

In 2024, retail inflows into single stocks are nearing record highs, similar to 2021, with positive inflows for 9 out of 11 months. India now has over 100 million unique investor (Source: NSE) trading single stocks, up from 30 million in FY20, with 7% of adults investing in equities, indicating a shift in investing habits. While only 25% of 2024's fundraising has been through IPOs, the IPO pipeline is strengthening, and Indian market multiples alongside a large domestic demand pool for equity, are also attracting the listing of MNCs' India arms.

The supply of equity in the market is fairly balanced, with block exits (promoter exits at 27% and private equity exits at 21%) making up a significant portion, alongside IPOs (25%) and Qualified Institutional Placements (QIPs) / Follow-on Public Offers (FPOs) at 27%. However, the large equity supply could limit market returns in 2025, despite strong domestic demand.

Mr. Deepak Agrawal

Senior Executive Vice President, Fund Management Debt

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited

Mr. Deepak Agrawal is a Post Graduate in Commerce from Mumbai University, a qualified chartered account and a company secretary. Also cleared AIMR CFA Level I. His career has started from Kotak AMC when he joined the organisation in December 2002, where he was initially in Research, Dealing and then moved into Fund Management from November 2006.

Q1. India's 10-year benchmark government bond yield logged its biggest jump in six months in October. What are the factors that you think are affecting these yields right now?

Ans: Rise in US yield was the major driver for rise in domestic bond yield apart from higher inflation for the month of September 2024. The US yield were higher by ~ 65-70 bps in the month of Oct 2024. This was driver partially by strong jobs data for the month of Sept 2024 and partially due to market discounting Trump Presidency and Grand Old Party (GOP) clean sweep.

Q2. October saw the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index. Will this attract substantial foreign investment, boosting demand for Indian bonds?

Ans: After inclusion in JP Morgan Index and Bloomberg Emerging Market Bond Index, inclusion in FTSE Emerging Bond Index is also a positive sign. It increases the probability of Indian Bonds getting included in Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index over the course of next 2 year, which can draw in substantial flow in Indian Fixed Income Market. Inclusion in FTSE Emerging Market Bond index will draw 4 Billion $ flows in Indian Fixed Income Market starting Sept 2025. Even though the quantum is relatively smaller as comparison to JP Morgan Bond Index, nonetheless it’s a positive development for the Indian Fixed Income Market.

Q3. India's fiscal deficit for April-September stood at ₹4.75 trillion, 29.4% of the estimate for 2024-25. What could be the possible reasons?

Ans: The government's spending has been lower due to general elections conducted earlier this year. Total government expenditure during the period was 21.1 trillion rupees, or about 44% of the annual goal. For the first six months, the government's capital expenditure, or spending on building physical infrastructure, was 4.15 trillion rupees, or 37% of the annual target, as against 4.9 trillion rupees for the same period a year earlier. GOI is likely to miss the budgeted capital expenditure for FY 25 by ~ 1 lakh crs. Net tax receipts for the first six months of the current financial year were 12.65 trillion rupees, or 49% of the annual target, compared with 11.6 trillion rupees for the same period last year. GOI finances also got a boost from 2.11 lakh crs dividend from RBI. The fiscal deficit target for the full is likely to be lower than 4.9% budgeted, which is positive for fixed income market.

Q4. The annual inflation rate in India rose to 5.49% in September of 2024 from 3.65% in the previous month, well above market estimates of 5%. How do you anticipate this?

Ans: Inflation for the month of September rose above 5% and for the month of October it has come above 6%. However the core inflation has been in the band of 3.6-3.70%. Inflation for September and October is largely due to vegetable inflation (tomato) which has started to cool off in the month of Nov 2024. Inflation for Q3 FY 25 is likely to be above RBI forecast, however for Q4 FY 25 Inflation is likely to be in line with RBI forecast. Inflation in Q1 FY 26 is likely to be in the band of 4.25-4.5%.

Q5. With gold prices hitting record highs recently, should investors consider increasing their exposure to gold, or is it time to book profits?

Ans: We have been advising investors to have some allocation to gold based on the advice of their investment counsellor.
We continue to remain positive on gold, given that global central banks continue to buy gold (H1 CY 24, Central bank gold purchases is 5% higher than last year), Monetary easing by Fed and given the fiscal, tariff and immigration policies of the Trump Govt is likely to push inflation higher.

Q6. How can retail investors effectively incorporate bonds into their portfolios to ensure steady income and enhance diversification?

Ans: Investors should adhere to asset allocation based on the advice of their investment counsellor. Within the fixed income allocation, debt funds are likely to outperform other traditional fixed income options due to rate cuts expected over next 1 year. As an alternative to debt scheme, Investors can also consider our Kotak Income plus arbitrage fund of fund, which invest 40% of the assets in arbitrage scheme and 60% of its assets in debt scheme. This fund is tax efficient as compared to other debt scheme.